Ethiopia (alone): turn power-sharing into rules, not war What’s actually blocking democracy Politics shaped by security crises and conflict legacies Deep center–region tensions and identity-based mobilization Low trust in institutions as neutral referees (courts, electoral bodies, media) Elections risk becoming a “winner-take-all” trigger The AU + IGAD should do Democracy under conflict reality: prioritize sequenced democracy: stabilize local security and civic space first then credible elections region by region if needed Civic space guarantees: AU should monitor and publicly report on: media freedom opposition participation arbitrary detention patterns Constitutional “rules of the game” mediation: not just peace talks—AU-backed technical mediation on: federal–regional powers election timing and administration safeguards for minority protections What Ethiopia can do domestically Independent referees: strengthen electoral management + judiciary independence with transparent appointments and oversight De-escalation architecture: local conflict prevention committees, early warning, negotiated security arrangements Power-sharing that’s legal, not informal: if coalitions exist, put them into rules (parliamentary oversight, budget checks, decentralised accountability) Ethiopia in one line: democracy holds when institutions replace mobilization and power contests stop being existential.